---
title: US Renewable Diesel Flight Puts Domestic Supply at Risk
---

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# U.S. Renewable Diesel Flight Puts Domestic Supply at Risk

The U.S. renewable diesel market is competing on a global stage. Export demand, diverging clean-fuel policies and domestic shipping costs are redirecting supply beyond U.S. borders—raising the stakes for the programs and market participants that depend on it.

Get OPIS analysis of the market forces reshaping renewable diesel flows and what they could mean for domestic clean-fuel supply.

### Domestic supply is now part of a global bidding war

The U.S. renewable diesel market has shifted from a primarily domestic model to one shaped by global arbitrage. In 2025, reported U.S. renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel exports totaled 625 million gallons. Export volumes remained strong into 2026, with Canada emerging as a major destination.

At the same time, oversupply, compressed producer margins, evolving federal incentives and costly domestic logistics have changed the economics of where fuel is sold. The result: U.S. compliance programs may need to compete more aggressively to retain the volumes they rely on.

Download the whitepaper to understand what is driving this shift and the potential implications for producers, refiners, fuel suppliers and clean-fuel market participants.

## What the whitepaper examines

## The shift from domestic supply to global arbitrage

How export demand and relative market economics are influencing where renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel are sold.

## Canada’s growing pull on U.S. volumes

Why Canadian clean-fuel demand, credit structures and feedstock rules are creating an attractive destination for U.S. renewable diesel.

## Policy-driven feedstock divisions

How differences between U.S. and European rules are dividing domestic and export pathways—and shaping producers’ operating choices.

## Margin pressure and changing incentives

How oversupply, the relationship between soybean oil and heating oil prices, and the transition from the Blenders’ Tax Credit to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit have affected producer economics.

## The cost of moving fuel within the U.S.

Why rail, vessel availability, shipping costs and other logistical constraints can make export routes more attractive than domestic transportation.

## The implications for U.S. clean-fuel programs

Why a less flexible supply response could increase competition for renewable diesel and create new challenges for programs that depend on domestic volumes.

#### Key questions answered

- How much U.S. renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel is moving to export markets?
- Why has Canada become an increasingly important destination for U.S. renewable diesel?
- How are competing U.S. and European feedstock policies shaping producers’ market choices?
- What role do margins, tax incentives and compliance-credit economics play in the shift?
- Why can it be more attractive to ship fuel overseas than to move it between U.S. regions?
- What could a less responsive domestic supply mean for U.S. clean-fuel programs and compliance costs?

 

### Get the full analysis

Download *U.S. Renewable Diesel Flight Puts Domestic Supply at Risk* for OPIS analysis of the policy, market and logistical forces redirecting U.S. renewable diesel—and the challenges this creates for domestic supply.

### Download Report

### Continue the LCFS conversation

The forces reshaping renewable-diesel flows will have implications for LCFS strategy, compliance, pricing and supply decisions.

Explore the [15th Annual OPIS LCFS & Carbon Markets Workshop](https://www.opis.com/lcfs-and-carbon-markets-workshop/) to hear from market participants and experts on the issues shaping clean-fuels and carbon markets in 2027.

[Learn More](https://www.opis.com/lcfs-and-carbon-markets-workshop/)

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